Urea demand has remained weak in China this week. Domestic prices for prilled urea have decreased by CNY 12.5/t (2/t) to CNY 1,650—1,670/t (245—248/t) EXW China, while those for granular urea have increased by CNY 20/t (3/t) to CNY 1,800—1,810/t (268—269/t) EXW China since last week.
Now, interest in Chinese urea from overseas markets continues to provide some support to prices. In the export market, asking prices for prilled and granular urea have increased by $22.5/t (CNY 151/t) and $17.5/t (CNY 118/t) to $380—390/t (CNY 2,554—2,621/t) FOB China in bulk and $405—410/t (CNY 2,722—2,756/t) FOB China in bulk, respectively, since last week. Suppliers have sold some cargoes of granular urea at these levels for the deep-sea market, presumably for shipment to Latin America.
Sources say that the transport of new urea lots to ports may take longer amid congestion at local ports and full warehouses as suppliers seek to deliver cargoes for India. Also, as urea cargoes have to leave Chinese loading ports for India by 24 September, prompt availability has started to tighten. Reminder: RCF signed letters of intent to buy a total of 1.7795 million t of urea under its 11 August tender, of which about 1.2—1.5 million t is reportedly expected to come from China. Netbacks from RCF’s counteroffers for dispatch to India’s West and East Coasts were around $358.65/t (CNY 2,410/t) FOB China and $360.25—363.25/t (CNY 2,421—2,441/t) FOB China, respectively. Nevertheless, based on the latest netbacks from counteroffers in India, market players say few new deals could be concluded at these levels.
At the same time, high urea stocks in China are expected to put pressure on the market, particularly once demand related to deliveries under the Indian tender decreases.
Note: the government announced the second package of 2026 urea export quotas for around 2—2.5 million t of urea in early August, allowing exports until the end of November.
As of 27 August, prilled and granular urea stocks at Chinese ports jumped by 362,300 t w-o-w to 1.0766 million t. Chinese producers have a total of 1.671 million t of urea in stock, which is 17,600 t less than last week. Amid some turnarounds of urea facilities in the country, daily urea output declined by 10,800 t to 196,000 t from last week.
The USD/CNY exchange rate was 6.721 on 27 August.
